February 21 2020  |  Retailers

New tool helps assess impact of coronavirus outbreak

By Mary Jane Pittilla

A screenshot of m1nd-set’s new coronavirus scenarios tool

Swiss research firm m1nd-set has developed a new module to allow its subscribers to input any combination of scenarios to assess how their business may be affected by the temporary route and border closures introduced to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

The module allows for various severity scenarios: mild, moderate and severe, with varying degrees in the percentage decline of traffic demand to and from China, as well as demand around Asia and in the rest of the world over the months of February, March and April. This can be assessed both for domestic and international, separately or combined.

Looking at the impact on international departures alone, global air traffic would see a 7.1% decline in the mild scenario, a 9.6% drop in traffic in the moderate scenario and a 15.2% decline in the severe scenario.

Mild Scenario:
Asia Pacific: -19.1%
Middle East and Africa: -3.4%
Americas: -2.1%
Europe: -1.8%

Moderate Scenario:
Asia Pacific: -23.9%
Middle East and Africa: -5.4%
Americas: -3.5%
Europe: -3%

Severe Scenario:
Asia Pacific: -38.1%
Middle East and Africa: -9.7%
Americas: -5.3%
Europe: -4.5%

The new module has enabled companies across the travel retail sector to assess the real and potential impact on travel and adapt strategies and business plans accordingly.

All data is sourced from m1nd-set's comprehensive traffic and shopper insights tool, B1S (Business 1ntelligence Service).

m1nd-set’s Covid-19 scenarios tool uses the B1S airline traffic destinations database, which contains the full flight path (airline-origin, airport-direct destination and airport-final destination) for every single unique flight path (more than 3.4 billion) as well as ticket sales data from more than 4 billion passenger flight tickets over the past 12 months.

The model calculates the scenarios based on actual passenger numbers from the previous 12 months and adapts the data based on current restrictions, including airlines that have ceased operations to airports in China, countries that have banned passengers on certain routes or that have locked down the borders for all air traffic from China, all of which have a direct impact on actual traffic.

In addition, the model integrates traffic demand data, both to and from China as well as within Asia Pacific and across the rest of the world to take into account how the coronavirus is affecting demand globally. The traffic demand scenarios are then applied to every individual flight path to provide the most probable and realistic estimates on how traffic will be affected over the coming weeks and months.

Brand News

April 3 2020

Illva Saronno Donates 100,000 hand…

Illva Saronno Holding has joined the army of alcohol companies to support COVID-19 relief. The company has decided to convert…

By Jas Ryat

April 2 2020

​L’ORÉAL USA supports America's…

L’Oréal USA today announced a multi-faceted initiative to support Americans during the COVID-19 outbreak and recovery. This…

By Jas Ryat

April 1 2020

​Nuwave Channel Partners introduces…

Nuwave Channel Partners has unveiled a new product from its Armor London brand which aids in the defence of protecting travelers…

By Jas Ryat

March 31 2020

Lotte Duty Free unveils first ‘Smart…

South Korea’s largest travel retailer, Lotte Duty Free, has announced the “Smart Store”, the first store in the industry…

By Jas Ryat

March 31 2020

Brown-Forman announces US$1 million…

US based Brown Forman Corporation recently announced a donation of US$1 million to COVID-19…

By Jas Ryat

March 31 2020

Puig partners with Spanish government…

Puig joins forces with Spanish government to offer its production capacity to manufacture hydro-alcoholic solutions and sanitizers…

By Jas Ryat

March 31 2020

Diego dalla Palma raises funds…

Italian make-up and cosmetics c​ompany Diego dalla Palma Milano has chosen to support the project Più Forti Insieme (Stronger…

By Jas Ryat

March 27 2020

Coty to produce Hydro-alcoholic…

Coty Inc. has started production of hydro-alcoholic gel, which is used as hand sanitizer, to help combat the COVID-19 virus.…

By Jas Ryat

March 26 2020

Distell to produce sanitzer in…

Africa's spirit, wine and cider giant, Distell, has come forward to produce hand sanitizers and other hygienic products at…

By Jas Ryat

Copyright 2020 DutyFree Magazine. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy Sitemap